Monthly Archives: January 2015

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Renewable Energy in Kosovo for 2015

Once again, Kosova is attempting to attract investment in its all-important energy sector. Since liberation in 1999, and its declaration of independence in 2008, the tiny nation has made repeated attempts to increase its generating capacity. Government after government has understood that it must do so in order to renovate an obsolete, inefficient, environmentally toxic, and accident-prone power generation system. Attempt after attempt has failed.

Lack of advance has not been for want of trying. Time and again during the past fifteen years Kosova has announced a tendering process to select the right foreign investment partner. Each attempt has collapsed – sometimes from failure to attract serious bidders; more often from mishandling of the technical and/or legal parameters of the exercise.

Nor has failure been due to an absence of favorable conditions that would normally attract multi-national interest and participation. For one, Kosova is ideally located in the heart of South-Central Europe, surrounded by neighbors (Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Italy), all of which individually and collectively confront similar energy dificiencies – and little hope of meeting the increasing demands of their peoples for economic advancement. While Kosova by itself is a tiny market, connectivity with the region would bode well for those entrepreneurs with the courage and acumen to enter this new and potentially lucrative wider market.

In addition to location, Kosova has a head start on others in terms of project readiness. During a decade of tutelage by United Nations administrators, Kosova was the beneficiary of dozens of feasibility studies, project proposals and resource assessments, produced by UN technical experts. Many of the most detailed, best adaptable to implementation were in the energy sector. The consensus was that Kosova held significant opportunity for profitable investment in the area of power generation.

Unfortunately these favorable conditions have been weakened by negative factors, as yet not overcome. First, there is the negative image of the region in general, Kosova in particular, generated by two decades of war, ethnic conflict, and endemic violence generated by the chaotic collapse of the former Yugoslavia. This, after all, is the notorious Balkans. Second, are the uncertainties surrounding Kosova’s self-declared status as an independent state, with acceptance as such by the majority of nations and international bodies, but not by all. Thirdly, and perhaps the most damaging, the perception, and reality, of a dysfunctional government bureaucracy hampered in its decision-making by timidity, internal disputes, incompetence and, worst of all, unfettered corruption. Potential foreign investors are understandably hesitant to become involved. Awareness of potential problems and agile due diligence are essential.

The obstacles, the difficulties of investing in such a problematic and difficult to fathom environment are real, but so too the potential for a sound, acceptable risk investment. William G. Walker and Associates has a well-earned and credible reputation for knowing the right persons, counseling on the most appropriate and effective strategy to avoid the pitfalls, and using our unique access and insights into how Kosova truly functions, the hidden agendas, and political connections of those involved, to the benefit of any serious investor.


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Albanian Private-Public Invitation to Foreign Entrepreneurs and Investors

Yesterday, Albanian Minister of economic development, trade and entrepreneurship Arben Ahmetaj held a press conference announcing the invitation of private foreign investors to enter into public partnership in various sectors with the Albanian government.

This is not the first time since emerging from its communist past that an Albanian government has announced its intention to attract serious foreign investment. The country’s economy, badly in need of investment and growth in virtually all sectors after decades of mismanagement, must do so if it is to convince the world that the country’s undeniable potential for growth and profit can be pursued by foreign capital and know-how. Previous efforts have been largely unsuccessful given the image, and reality, of an emerging nation still handicapped by endemic corruption and suspicion of foreign capture of national resources.

Before this latest program can have its intended success, foreign investors must perceive an Albania wherein past impediments have been minimized, political risks reduced to those that apply to investment in more mature markets, that the rule of law is more firmly in place to protect their investments should disputes arise. Changing today’s image of Albania as a risky market for foreign capital will require work by the Government, the Albanian private sector, and foreign investors. The good news is that Albania offers enviable opportunity throughout its economy, and that the are a number of local partners and unbiased outside consultants to help interested foreign capital make wise decisions. The market is ripe for serious investment, but caution is advised.

In our opinion, perhaps the most important, and difficult, decision a foreign investor must make is the identification of a capable, respected, and honest local partner. This is not as easy as it would be in the United States, Western Europe, or Japan, wherein trade associations and the like are there to separate reputable enterprises from the scam artists too often able to sell their bona fides to susceptible and/or corrupt local decision makers.

That is where the outside consultant, knowledgeable of the environment, the players, the pitfalls, can make the difference between a successful and a failed investment decision.

The consulting services of W G Walker and Associates offers would be, without question, a valuable resource for any potential investors in the region.


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Mobile Payment Systems and Latin America

In many eyes, technological innovation flows in only one direction: Developed World to Developing World. Although people generally accept that countries like India, China, and Russia have robust technological sectors, the impression held by many is that the major centers of innovation are in developed countries-the United States being the Prime with its Silicon Valley technological gurus turning the world on its head with their latest gizmo or concept-and developing countries are simply technology consumers happy to sit back and let others innovate. Unfortunately, this perception belies some really exciting technological developments that have taken place in the Developing World, and one of them, M-Pesa out of Kenya, is rivaling many Tech companies in the West with its its disruption of traditional methods of doing things and its huge acceptance rate and reach, two concepts that keep your average Silicon Valley-type awake at night as they brainstorm over the next ‘big thing’.

For those that aren’t familiar with M-Pesa, Fiona Graham of BBC News did a nice write-up of it in 2010 which can be found here. Briefly, M-Pena sprung out of a joint venture between Vodaphone and Safaricom, a Kenyan telecom of which Vodaphone was a minority shareholder, in 2008. Originally, M-Pesa was envisioned as a system by which mobile phone users could handle microfinance loan repayment. Rather than rely on centralized banks to handle the fund transfers, mobile phone users, most of which did not have bank accounts, could transfer money through the M-Pesa system to a recipient easily; all one had to do was visit an M-Pesa outlet, “load money into the phone”, and send it along. However, what the developers did not envision was that adopters of M-Pesa would begin using the system to pay for just about anything they could think of. Its security, ease of use, and the ubiquity of mobile phone users in Kenya, created an environment in which microtransactions,-say, buying a newspaper from the local newsstand or paying for a taxi ride-could occur without having to carry physical money around all the time, something which many Kenyans without bank accounts worry about doing for fear of theft. After an explosion of adopters in Kenya in 2010-roughly 50% of the population was on the service-M-Pesa spread like wildfire to the rest of the African Continent over the next 4 years, and it has made inroads in to Afghanistan, India, and Eastern Europe. It is because of another unintended “feature” that I feel that mobile payment systems like M-Pesa are thriving: Remittances.

According to the Pew Research Center’s Hispanic Trends Project, the Unites States remitted $53.8 Billion in 2013 to Latin American countries (as of this writing, 2014 figures are not in yet, though 2013 continued a trend of increasing remittance levels that had dropped substantially during the Global Recession of 2008). The countries that received the bulk of remittances were in countries that closely bordered the United States – Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador – the only exception being Colombia. Together, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico, received roughly $31 Billion in remitted money, and, according to Manuel Orozco’s report, Future Trends in Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean, these countries are still behind South American countries in terms of population access to central banks and their branches. Mobile payment systems that follow M-Pesa’s model are making an impact on how immigrants overseas send money back to their families. As for governments, they are benefiting from revenue collection from something they never had the ability to effectively track before, thus pumping much needed money into social programs, infrastructure, and improvements to other general conditions in the home country.

What began as an experiment in a developing country has brought a sea change in the way people do business with each other. Those that always have their ears to the ground awaiting the next technological advance or innovation would be wise to not shut their ears to the sounds emmanating from Developing Nations.


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A New Year, a new website

Greetings!

The New Year is upon us, and with it come many changes; the first of which is a complete overhaul of our web page. We hope you enjoy it!

We have many new projects, goals, and plans for 2015, and we are eager to get started. Pay attention to this space as we keep you up to date on what we are working on.

William G. Walker and Associates, LLC wishes you all a prosperous and happy New Year!